2019/20 Championship Predictions, Part 1

It’s that time of the year where the excitement for the new season is at its peak. With the start of the Championship season tonight, I thought I’d have a crack at predicting the final table, starting with the bottom half. There is no doubt that this prediction will be horrifically wrong, but having watched the championship a lot over the past 3 seasons, I’d like to think I could get vaguely close. I’ll also give a short summary of my reasons for the positions given.

24th Charlton Athletic

Last season’s League One Play-off winners Charlton haven’t lost many players from the side that gained them promotion, but one player whose loss could affect their survival chances greatly is that of Joe Aribo. The attacking midfielder will be hard to replace and though they have signed Chuks Aneke from MK Dons and secured Jonny Williams permanently, I do believe they will greatly miss his quality. This lack of quality and the unproven nature of Manager Lee Bowyer are the reasons why I think Charlton will finish bottom of the pile.

23rd Wigan Athletic

Wigan were nothing short of dreadful at times last season, and have hardly strengthened this transfer window. The signing of Antonee Robinson on a permanent deal is a move in the right direction, however, losing players like Nick Powell to a Championship rival and not effectively replacing him could cost Wigan. On top of this the fact that Reece James has gone back to Chelsea will also dent their chances. I can’t see any improvements for Wigan this season.

22nd Luton Town

Luton Town have been an exciting team to watch over the past few years in League One and Two, and this season it will be interesting to see if they can make the step up to the Championship. Their recruitment has been relatively astute with plenty of Championship experience being brought in as well as an unknown entity in the form of Goalkeeper Simon Sluga. Despite this, I’m not sure that the players that have secured the hatters back to back promotions will be able to step up at this level. Goalscoring will be key and plenty of strikers haven’t adapted to the level well enough and I don’t think James Collins will either. I expect them to be relegated, but don’t be surprised if Luton do finish higher.

21st Queens Park Rangers

QPR have had a lot of incomings and a lot of outgoings this summer. The loss of Luke Freeman will be the biggest loss, and I’m not sure he’ll be easily replaced. For large parts of last season, it seemed like Freeman was the only decent player at QPR’s disposal and the team was absolutely diabolical. I expect this trend to continue despite some good incomings, such as Jordan Hugill, and I almost put them in the relegation zone.

20th Barnsley

Barnsley could easily go down this season, they have lost a number of the players that got them promoted. However, something tells me that they will stop up. They’ve brought in a number of players to replace those that they’ve lost and manager Daniel Stendel is young, exciting and most importantly German. This is a recipe for a team that could surprise a few and I think they will.

19th Millwall

Millwall are an odd one. Each season I have expected them to be relegated and they haven’t been. So, this season I don’t think they will be, probably means they will, but ah well. The loss of Lee Gregory will greatly affect them as he has been their talisman for a number of seasons, but the addition of Jon Dadi Bodvarsson in his stead could work. Bodvarsson is hard working, though not prolific, and could suit the Millwall system. Where Millwall finish will be hugely reliant on their home form, which will need to be as good as it has been in the past.

18th Birmingham City

As much as I want the Blues to be relegated, when I put my personal bias aside, I don’t think they will be. That doesn’t mean I think they’ll be good, far from it. The whole palaver involving the Loss of Gary Monk can only harm any good feeling and harmony that may have been in the squad after last season. The message from the owners seems to be very mixed also, with Gary Gardner being brought in and Jota being moved out to cut costs, but then they spend £7million on Ivan Sunjic. It will likely be a rollercoaster season for Birmingham.

17th Hull City

Nigel Adkins did a fantastic job last season at Hull. Comfortably keeping a poor team in the Championship. Adkins is now gone, and I can’t see McCann doing a similar job, especially with the endless rumours surrounding star man Jarrod Bowen. If Bowen stays Hull stay up, if he doesn’t anything could happen.

16th Reading

Reading are in for another dull season in the Championship and may even get dragged into the relegation picture. When your Marquee signing is Charlie Adam, I think that says it all. Dull.

15th Swansea city

Swansea seem to have had a fire sale on their players recently, any player with quality is just a money maker for the owners it seems. The loss of bright spark Daniel James and Proven Goal scorer Oliver McBurnie will all but destroy any chances of Swansea pushing on from a disappointing 2018/19 campaign.

14th Nottingham Forest

Forest are another team that I see heavily relying on one player this season, Joe Lolley. They’ve shrugged off bids from Villa for the midfielder this window, and if he stays, I see them securing yet another mid table finish. The acquisition of Albert Adomah on a free will also provide them with extra experience, and most importantly if they are to push on, experience of promotion.

13th Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday were looking very promising at the tail end of last season, and they looked set for a play off place with Steve Bruce at the helm. Steve Bruce’s departure has certainly mixed things up though, and I see them dropping to a dismal mid table finish. Wednesday have lots of quality, but very rarely does it come together on a consistent basis, and I see this season being a continuation of that.

What is Jim Rutherford doing in Pittsburgh?

On 25th June this year Pittsburgh Penguins General Manager Jim Rutherford was entered into the hockey hall of fame. He was chosen due to his status as a ‘builder’ of the reputation of hockey with his Stanley cup in Carolina and the impressive back to back cups in Pittsburgh. Despite all this success however, Rutherford is now gaining a reputation of being a GM that wins cups and then destroys the team. Many Penguins fans have been scratching their heads over some of the moves that Rutherford has made, and are now stating that he was doing the same thing that he did in Carolina, win the cup and then ‘mix things up’ for no apparent reason. I would have to agree with this in a great number of ways, Rutherford may have let his back to back cup success go to his head. Well, it’s either that or he’s a mad genius that no one can quite understand and something big is coming in the next few years. But I really can’t see improvements in any area of the team.

Arguably the first and oddest move made by Rutherford in this string of bad decisions is the signing of Jack Johnson, before the 2018/19 season. Johnson was coming off the back of several bad years and apart from the fact that he was friends with Sidney Crosby being a positive, I don’t think even the most optimistic Penguins fan could see the deal panning out in the long run. Then it came to the term and the price, both horrific, $3.25million a year for 5 years. That much is absolute lunacy for what is a not very good, 3rd pairing defenceman, on the wrong side of 30. This looks even more stupid when you realise the Penguins are a team that is currently struggling for salary cap space. The contract has been a mistake ever since it was signed and even Rutherford himself has realised this by trying to move Johnson in the offseason. What he didn’t realise was that no one wants to take a terrible defenceman for over $3million, meaning the Penguins have 4 more years of Jack Johnson to look forward to and no cap space without moving someone who actually is valuable to the team.

The trade for Erik Gudbranson was met by Penguins fans with a degree of bemusement. Branded by a large number of Canucks fans as the ‘worst defenceman in the league’, it obviously doesn’t fill you with confidence. On top of this Gudbranson’s cap hit is hardly small or in any way equal to his ability, at $4million for another 2 years. It could be argued that the Gudbranson trade has been a decent one for the Penguins who were in need of some size and grit defensively, and his play has decidedly improved since moving from Vancouver. Despite this, the cap hit for him is much too large to justify for what he adds to the team, and having him and Johnson in the Pittsburgh top 6 defencemen has drastically slowed the pace at which the team can play due to their lack of mobility. A team that was prized for its speed and skill has had its identity ripped away by a seemingly incompetent GM.

Next up in this string of dodgy moves is the recent acquisition of Brandon Tanev in free agency. Tanev was a well-loved, hardworking forward while in Winnipeg, not the kind of player that put up great amounts of points. Jim Rutherford therefore decided to offer the 27-year-old $3.5million a year for 6 years, absolute madness for someone who will play 3rd or 4th line minutes and won’t produce heavily offensively.  By the time the contract is up Tanev will be 33 and will probably be somewhat of a drain on the team. Contracts for players who play a particularly physical brand of hockey tend to not age well, as the player falls off a cliff ability-wise later on in their career. This also plays into the final issue that I have with what Rutherford is doing, signing players with large cap hits, a year before the contracts of so many players are up.

Signing players with 1 year left on their contract is always a risky move. Rutherford has traded for a couple with this problem, notably Kahun and Galchenyuk. Not only has he traded for them, there’s plenty on the roster already such as Jared McCann. These players need to be paid next year, and McCann is most likely going to ask for a raise if he continues his good form. Where is the money going to come from to pay these players? Signing the likes of Gudbranson and Johnson has eaten up cap space that could have been saved for the signing of free agents and better defencemen like Marcus Pettersson.

Rutherford is clearly trying to change the way that the Penguins play, making them quicker and harder to play against in the forward department. These trades and signings over the past two seasons though have been very confused and regrettable, wrecking the Penguins blue line. I haven’t brought up the Phil Kessel trade however, as I believe that it was a necessary one, as there have been rumours about Kessel’s personality issues everywhere he has played. The trade was needed in order to keep Mike Sullivan as coach, and Arizona was willing to give something back, and was somewhere that Kessel was willing to be traded to. Other than that Rutherford is taking apart the Penguins identity piece by piece, and unfortunately is wasting the final years of one of the best players to have played hockey, Sidney Crosby, by surrounding him with a number of players who just aren’t on his level.

Statistically Good Players Premier League Clubs Should Look to Sign

In an age where the prices for players are skyrocketing, and transfer fees have become nonsensical, bigger clubs are increasingly pricing out smaller clubs from getting the players they want. Recently, the transfer of Joao Felix from Benfica to Atletico Madrid epitomises the ludicrous money that is in the modern game. Despite being young and clearly somewhat talented, scoring 15 goals and getting 9 assists in 26 league games, the transfer has stirred up my inner football pessimist. Is a player who scored 15 goals in a season, in a league where Ricky van Woolfswinkel had an impressive record, really worth over £110million? Surely there is someone out there that would be more cost effective, and carries much less risk if their career goes south.

Thinking of this, I looked to find not only some good alternatives to Joao Felix at a lesser price, but some players who aren’t currently in the spotlight, who have performed well statistically across last season.

  • Teji Savanier

Despite having departed Nimes already this summer for €9million to Montpellier, Savanier would be a very useful signing for most Premier League clubs either at the end of next season, or in January at a stretch. The Frenchman was nothing short of sensational last season in Ligue 1 picking up 14 assists (better than any other player) and scoring 6 goals. This is even more impressive when you take into account where he got these goals and assists, playing in central midfield and sometimes even holding midfield.

Players who produce in the middle of the park are gold dust in today’s game and at €9million it looks like an absolute steal for Montpelier if he continues his blistering form. Speaking of said form, in his last 10 games Savanier has 6 assists and 3 goals, which would be impressive for an attacking midfielder or forward. A more worrying statistic would be his 71% passing accuracy, which would ideally be higher for a player of his type, however this may suggest that Savanier plays a great deal of risky passes and through balls, that are less likely to come off. There is also a tactical element to this as Nimes played the 2nd lowest number of short passes per game and the 6th highest number of long balls per game, showing that short, crisp passing play that may suit a player such as this, wasn’t being played at Nimes.

At 27 years of age, and last season being his first in the French top flight, it is possible that Savanier’s impressive record could be a rather large flash in the pan. However, if he has another season like the last, expect Premier League teams to be sniffing around, as his price is unlikely to move that much higher.

  • Moussa Niakhate

Mainz’s Moussa Niakhate is in no way similar to Joao Felix, being a towering centre half, but he has impressed in a variety of ways statistically. His 87% pass completion is not only one of the highest in the Bundesliga, it also highlights Niakhate’s ability when playing out from the back, an attractive quality for many managers in the Premier League with playing out of defence being very much in vogue currently. This pass completion stat is very surprising for a man of his stature, but this doesn’t mean he is ineffective in the other areas of the game that would be more traditionally associated with a large defender. Niakhate won 75 aerial duels across the season showing an unsurprising proficiency in the air. He also performed admirably when it came to duels, winning 295. Though these statistics don’t place him at the top of any player tables, the fact that Niakhate is in the top 30 or 40 Bundesliga players in several areas reveals that he is a well-rounded and highly talented defender, in a team where a few more of those were required.

At 23 Niakhate is most likely only going to improve as he has the prime of his career ahead of him. His ability has also been recognised with a trip to the European under 21 championships with France. He has attracted Premier League interest previously as Huddersfield were rumoured to want Niakhate last summer, however Mainz beat them to his signature. The Frenchman is also Valued at €14 million meaning Mainz could demand around €25-30 million which isn’t ridiculously expensive when compared to the price of other young defenders.

  • Wout Weghorst

It has greatly surprised me that there hasn’t been more interest in Wolfsburg striker Wout Weghorst this summer. Forwards that work as hard as the Dutchman are hard to come by and I believe he would slot into many a Premier League team very well as a main or supporting striker due to his work ethic and physicality. The statistics from last season support this with Weghorst performing over 130 more intensive runs and over 80 more sprints than any other Bundesliga player. He also sits 4th for aerial duels won thanks to not only his tremendous work rate but also the fact that he stands at 6ft5. This brings to mind a more effective version of Salomon Rondon who performed very well for Newcastle last season.

Weghorst doesn’t just run about a bit and win headers though, he also contributed greatly in the goals and assists department. He finished behind only Robert Lewandowski and Paco Alcacer for goals with 17 and added 7 assists (which is the same as RB Leipzig’s Emil Forsberg). This combination of goals, work rate and aerial strength gives me a feeling that Weghorst would be very much suited to the Premier League. Any club, apart from maybe Manchester City, could benefit from having an effective target man added to their ranks. Despite the fact that there are some issues regarding his technical ability on the ball, and the fact that Wolfsburg could ask a handsome price for his services, I still think that an English side should take a punt on Weghorst.

  • Adam Buksa

Unless you’re a great fan of the Polish Top Tier I doubt you’ve ever even heard Buksa’s name. However, the 23-year old’s goal to game ratio last season impressed me with 11 goals in 22 league appearances. He also contributed 4 assists meaning that in his 1826 minutes of league football he was involved in a goal every 121 minutes. This isn’t too shabby for a player who most likely still has some room to improve. On top of this Buksa stands at just over 6ft3 meaning he could prove handy to a team that plays a large number of long balls or simply as an impact sub for a lower end Premier League team. Transfermarkt values the Pogon Szczecin striker at £900k, so for around £2-3million an English side could have a young striker that clearly knows where the goal is, for a snip of what other players are going for.

I am in no way saying that Buksa is the next Robert Lewandowski, far from it. What I am saying however is that Buksa could be a cheap alternative as a back up striker for many of the lower end Premier League sides.

  • Brais Mendez

Attacking Midfielder and Right Winger Brais Mendez didn’t exactly set La Liga alight last season. However, with his 6 goals and 7 assists in 31 games for Celta Vigo he definitely had a very solid campaign in the league. WhoScored.com gave Mendez an average rating of 6.99 for his performances highlighting his consistency despite Celta Vigo’s struggles and his young age. He also averaged 1.5 key passes a game showing his creative abilities, as a comparison Luca Modric averaged 1.7 and Thomas Lemar averaged 1.3. A creative midfielder such as Mendez would be invaluable to many a Premier League team outside the top 6 and he is also very likely to improve and gain value, so investing in the 22-year-old would most likely be worth it financially speaking. For a player whose output was not dissimilar to that of Joao Felix a Premier League team could have a player for around £60million less. If Mendez continues his improvement next season, then Celta Vigo could almost certainly see a large bid for him coming in.

To conclude, though I have been impressed by these five players last season, it will be interesting to see if Premier League clubs do in fact take a punt on any of them. If I was to single one out for a move to the Prem in future it’d have to be Niakhate. Strong Centre Backs who are good on the ball are highly sought after and Niakhate could provide a cheaper alternative to most if not all English defenders, with the price for good English players climbing in recent transfer windows.

Statistics from whoscored.com, Transfermarkt and bundesliga.de

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